News diary 16–22 October: Dorries and Pincher seat by-elections, asylum seekers return to Bibby Stockholm

A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News.

Asylum seekers to be returned to migrant barge the Bibby Stockholm next week. Picture: JMundy/Shutterstock

A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News.

Leading the week

After the two largest parties spent the last couple of weeks in prep mode for their election campaigns, it’s back to the day-to-day business of Westminster politics on Monday (October 16) as Parliament returns from conference recess. First up in the House of Commons is Michael Gove’s levelling up department, though the currently scheduled business is likely to be overshadowed by a statement from the government on the situation in Israel/Gaza (more on that below) and a possible update from Rishi Sunak on his attendance at last week’s European Political Community meeting. The Israel conflict is sure to come up at cabinet on Tuesday (October 17), before Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer go head-to-head on Wednesday (October 18) in a session of PMQs that is likely to feature both parties’ freshest post-conference attack lines and inevitable digs at Starmer for serving in the shadow cabinet under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership.

With conference messaging to maintain and an escalating conflict to respond to, the Prime Minister could probably do without the distraction of another potential by-election upset next week; sadly for Sunak (but happily, one imagines, for Nadine Dorries), there are two very losable ballots coming up on Thursday (October 19). The outcome is anyone’s guess in Dorries’ former constituency of Mid-Bedfordshire, where the former Culture Secretary’s absenteeism could affect Conservative voter turnout, while the Liberal Democrats will be hoping to capitalise on a run of eye-catching by-election victories and Labour will hope to see a repeat of its vote share turnaround in Selby. In Tamworth, meanwhile, Labour are favourites to overturn a near-20,000 majority in a ballot triggered by the resignation of former government whip Chris Pincher after a Parliamentary standards investigation. Results for both votes are expected to be announced in the early hours of Friday (October 20).

Asylum seekers are set to return to the Bibby Stockholm on Thursday (October 19). It will be déjà vu for the group of 39 after they were ordered onto the boat in Portland, Dorset, earlier in the year, only to be evacuated after five days due to an outbreak of legionella. After being slammed by a number of charities who have described the vessel as not fit for purpose, the Home Office believes it is habitable again and free of contagion. Home Secretary Suella Braverman will be hoping the vessel can accommodate more people, with the government’s Rwanda deportation strategy yet to get off the ground. The plan to send undocumented asylum seekers to the African country was previously defeated in the courts, and anyone hoping for a speedy resolution after this week’s Supreme Court hearing will have been disappointed to hear that judges do not expect to issue a decision until December at the earliest.

Looking abroad

The situation in Israel following the unprecedented Hamas attack last weekend will dominate news next week amid the increasing likelihood of a ground operation in Gaza following days of intense air strikes in the densely populated Palestinian enclave and fears of a wider regional conflict. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who landed in Israel yesterday and is due in Jordan today, widened his trip to include stops in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt this weekend. Blinken was joined in Israel today by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, and the German, Italian and Canadian foreign ministers, as the UN announced that Israel has given 1.1 million Gazans 24 hours to evacuate south of the Wadi Gaza river.

Chinese President Xi Jinping will host representatives from over 130 nations for a two-day summit in Beijing starting on Tuesday (October 17). The gathering, formally titled the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, is China’s biggest diplomatic event this year. It comes as the Belt and Road Initiative (formerly known as the One Belt, One Road initiative) marks its 10th anniversary. The project’s massive infrastructure investments, mostly in Asia and Africa, are viewed as part of China’s efforts to challenge America’s global dominance. Although a final list of which countries plan to send leaders has yet to be announced, Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly accepted his invitation, and a bilateral meeting with Xi is likely.

Argentina holds presidential and legislative elections on Sunday (October 22) with all eyes on right-wing libertarian candidate Javier Milei, who has described himself as an ‘anarcho-capitalist’ and surprised many by winning the most votes in the open primary in August. The prospect of a Milei presidency has rattled markets, and in recent weeks the value of the country’s currency has fallen sharply as Milei continues to tout his plan to dollarise the economy as a solution to the country’s chronic inflation. Earlier this week, the country’s current president, Alberto Fernández, filed a judicial complaint against Milei after he described the peso as ‘worth less than excrement’, accusing Milei of ‘public intimidation’. As it stands, the election looks likely to head to a November 19 runoff, with current Economy Minister Sergio Massa and former Security Minister Patricia Bullrich leading among rival candidates.

Also look out for:

October 16

High Court hearing in Donald Trump case against MI6 agent over ‘dirty dossier’
Depute leader Keith Brown addresses SNP conference
US Senate reconvenes
Albania hosts Berlin Process Summit
Russia’s Commissioner for Children’s Rights, subject of an ICC arrest warrant, holds press briefing
Sergey Lavrov visits China
Jordan’s King Abdullah visits Berlin
BMA ballot on strike action closes for SAS doctors

October 17

Humza Yousaf delivers SNP conference speech
UK labour market and wage statistics
UN Human Rights Committee CCPR session on the US
Court of Appeal hearing for Cpt Tom Moore’s daughter over spa demolition
England v Italy EURO 2024 qualifier

October 18

Inflation data for September (pension and benefits uprating)
Sentencing of trans butcher convicted of sexual assault
EFRA committee hearing on XL bully dogs ban
Deadline for CMA decision in the Microsoft-Activision merger deal
Mark Zuckerberg speaks at STAT Summit
Confirmation hearing for new US Ambassador to Israel
JCPOA Transition Day: France, Germany, and UK maintain measures over non-compliance

October 19

OBR forecast evaluation report
Counter-extremism commissioner speech at RUSI
Duane Davis in court charged with murder of Tupac Shakur
Winner of Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought announced
RIBA Stirling Prize Awards

October 20

Joe Biden hosts US-EU summit
Extraordinary session of Japanese Diet
Brazilian foreign minister chairs UNSC session on conflict prevention
Riga Conference
Rugby World Cup 2023 semi-final
Rolling Stones release Hackney Diamonds album
One year ago: Liz Truss announced resignation

October 21

Nawaz Sharif returns to Pakistan and addresses mass rally
Rugby World Cup 2023 semi-final
Merseyside Derby in the Premier League
Cricket World Cup: England v South Africa

October 22

Yvette Cooper addresses Jewish Labour Movement conference
Federal elections in Switzerland
Opposition primary ahead of Venezuela presidential election
Nawaz Sharif due in court after return to Pakistan
United States Grand Prix

Statistics, reports and results:

October 16

Rightmove House Price Index
CPRE Local Green Spaces Report

October 17

Universal Credit statistics
Register of political donations
Launch of RUSI report on the UK’s role in Northern European security
IFS Green Budget
BSI survey on trust in AI
Results from: Bank of America, BNY Mellon, Goldman Sachs, Lockheed Martin, Johnson & Johnson, Ericsson

October 18

UK House Price Index and private housing rental prices
Producer price inflation
China GDP and economic data press conference
EU inflation
Results from: Tesla Motors, Netflix, US Bancorp, Morgan Stanley, Whitbread plc, United Airlines, Alcoa, United Airlines, Procter and Gamble

October 19

Secondary school performance tables 2022/23
Quarterly update on crime in England and Wales
Quarterly stats on CPS performance
NHS Digital personal social services adult care survey 2022/23
Annual ORR figures on rail infrastructure
FCA data on customer complaints against regulated firms
Results from: Metro AG, Roche, Nokia, American Airlines Group, L’Oréal, Nestle, Renault Group

October 20

Public sector finances
Retail sales
Moody’s UK sovereign review
GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer
China Loan Prime Rate announcement
Results from: Barclays, Schlumberger, American Express, InterContinental Hotels Group