A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News.
Leading the week
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak may have finally seen his Rwanda legislation clear its last Parliamentary hurdle and boosted his leadership credentials on the international stage this week, but there’s a huge challenge on the horizon as voters around the country go to the polls on Thursday (May 2) for this year’s local elections. It’s a bumper day of voting: ballots are taking place in over 100 English authorities and mayoralties in some of the biggest cities in the country are up for grabs, with three regions electing a mayor for the first time and a Parliamentary by-election thrown in for good measure.
Sunak’s Conservatives are projected to lose up to half of their share of councillors next week, but bigger losses will surely add fuel to the fire of backbench plotting to replace Sunak in time for the looming general election campaign. Two of the party’s most prominent figures outside Westminster, Andy Street and Ben Houchen, both face the prospect of defeat in the West Midlands and Tees Valley respectively, while Sadiq Khan looks set to win a third term in London despite the best efforts of the Tory campaign machine.
Labour has already lost councillors in recent months, with a flurry of resignations at the end of 2023 over the party’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war followed by a mass walkout in Lancashire earlier this month in protest at Keir Starmer’s leadership. The party will be hoping that it secures enough victories in key battleground areas, such as Essex and the North West, to counter any suggestion that all is not well under Starmer – though the contest in North Tyne between lately-independent incumbent mayor Jamie Driscoll and Labour candidate Kim McGuinness is a reminder that no one enjoys a fight against the Labour Party more than the Labour Party.
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The Blackpool by-election, triggered by the resignation of lobbying former MP Scott Benton, will serve as another useful bellwether for Labour’s prospects of regaining more of its former Red Wall seats at the general election. Elsewhere, the Lib Dems will be looking for gains in the south, where the party will be aiming to take more Parliamentary seats off the Tories later this year, while the Greens are hoping to win a record number of seats and Reform UK will be watching the vote share as results come in. Council results will start to filter through from Friday (May 3), along with Blackpool, the East Midlands, Tees Valley and North of Tyne, while London, the West Midlands, Liverpool and Greater Manchester declare on Saturday (May 4).
Beleaguered Scottish First Minister Humza Yousaf faces a vote of no confidence in the Scottish Parliament on Wednesday or Thursday (May 1 or 2) next week after the SNP’s power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens collapsed yesterday. With the Greens already considering the future of the Bute House Agreement after the Scottish Government ditched its commitment to reduce carbon emissions by 75% by 2030, Yousaf took it upon himself to scrap the pact before the Greens could break it. This put the SNP leader in a precarious position at the head of a now-minority government, and Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross wasted no time in lodging a vote of no confidence.
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The Greens have confirmed they will vote against Yousaf, giving opposition parties 64 votes to the SNP’s 63, and as fate would have it, that makes former SNP MSP Ash Regan – now sole representative of Alex Salmond’s Alba party – Holyrood’s ultimate powerbroker. Regan ran against Yousaf for the SNP leadership, but ultimately left the party over its gender recognition policy. She said she has already written to the first minister seeking assurances on a new programme for government focused on independence and ‘defend[ing] the rights of women and children’ as a condition for her support. Earlier today, Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar announced a separate no-confidence motion against the government as a whole, which is expected to be voted on alongside the Tory motion. It’s unclear whether the Greens would support Labour’s legally-binding motion, which would bring down the government and potentially trigger an election.
The inner workings of the BBC are in the spotlight for the second week in a row as a two-day employment tribunal gets underway on Wednesday (May 1). News presenter Martine Croxall is suing the corporation for age and sexual discrimination after being taken off air following the merger of BBC World and BBC News channels. Croxall was one of five female presenters denied senior roles after the merger and has been off-screen for over a year. Her lawsuit echoes that of Samira Ahmed, who successfully sued the BBC in 2020 in an equal pay dispute involving Jeremy Vine. The hearing brings more unwelcome attention for the Beeb following news this week that Huw Edwards has officially resigned, meaning an internal investigation into allegations he groomed a young male by sending him sexually explicit images will not be published.
Looking abroad
As a furious row over pro-Palestinian protests continues to spread across leading American university campuses, US Education Secretary Miguel Cardona is scheduled to appear before a Senate committee on Tuesday (April 30), where he’s likely to come under further pressure from Republicans to revoke federal funding for Columbia University after announcing that his department had opened an investigation into the school over allegations of antisemitic harassment.
Meanwhile, after the University of Southern California yesterday announced it was scrapping its main commencement ceremony altogether following the controversy over the cancellation of a valedictory speech by Muslim student Asna Tabassum, the University of Michigan’s ceremony takes place on Saturday (May 4). UMich President Santa Ono has faced criticism for his response to a pro-Palestinian protest during an honours convocation last month, and at the time of writing a group of students remain camped out in the university’s Diag. Saturday’s commencement is likely to be closely watched by other colleges as they prepare to hold their own graduation ceremonies over the coming weeks.
With the Israeli offensive in Rafah looking possible any day now despite warnings it could dramatically exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, the special World Economic Forum taking place in Riyadh on Sunday and Monday (April 28-29) may provide an opportunity for diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, with a host of foreign ministers from the region set to attend. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and French foreign minister Stéphane Séjourné are also looking likely, and both are thought to be planning trips to Israel after their visits to Saudi Arabia. The conflict will also feature prominently later in the week when leaders from the Muslim world gather in the Gambian capital Banjul for the two-day Organisation of Islamic Cooperation summit beginning on Saturday (May 4).
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will make a public statement on Monday (April 29) on his political future after his shock announcement on Wednesday that he is considering resigning. The 52-year-old socialist party leader, known as El Guapo, suspended his public duties and said the deliberations were prompted by the ‘unprecedented’ nature of an investigation into corruption allegations involving his wife, Begoña Gómez, which he claims are based on stories in ‘rightwing and ultra-rightwing media’. Sánchez has been in power since 2018 and was appointed to a third term in November after cobbling together a governing coalition which includes support from the Catalan separatist party. His opponents have characterised the announcement as a political stunt designed to garner support for his government.
Also look out for…
April 29
- Two 12-year-old boys appear in court charged with murder
- Teacher Fiona Beal sentenced for murdering boyfriend
- Inquest into death of girl found dead at boarding school
- Network Rail at committee session on rail transformation
- European Commission presidential candidates’ debate
- Delayed parliamentary elections in Togo
April 30
- FDA expected to launch legal challenge against Rwanda Bill
- New post-Brexit border controls introduced
- David Cameron at Lords international relations committee
- Former MI6 Chief at committee session on counter-terrorism
- Theresa May in conversation at Chatham House
- Thames Water debt repayment due
- Sentencing for former Binance CEO
- Hearing in Josef Fritzl bid to transfer to regular prison
- Tony nominations announced
May 1
- Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer face off at PMQs
- Future prosecutions halted under the Legacy Act
- Constance Marten and Mark Gordon trial resumes
- Sentencing of Met officer guilty of multiple rapes
- US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
- Florida six-week abortion ban comes into force
May 2
- OECD publishes Economic Outlook
- OECD Ministerial Council Meeting
- Results from Apple and Shell
- Princess Charlotte of Wales turns nine
May 3
- Paul Nowak addresses NAHT conference
- Sentencing for Just Stop Oil protestor who scaled M25 gantry
- Deadline for TikTok to provide information in EU proceedings
- Reporters Without Borders publishes Press Freedom Index
- First report due in Canada’s election integrity inquiry
May 4
- Ofsted chief inspector addresses NAHT conference
- Jake Sullivan speaks at FT Weekend Festival
- Heathrow refuelling workers take strike action
- Kentucky Derby
- Giro d’Italia begins
May 5
- Panama general elections
- Dress rehearsal for Moscow military parade
- Vanarama National League Promotion Final
- Formula One Miami Grand Prix
Statistics, reports and results:
April 29
- ONS statistics on persistent poverty in the UK and EU
- Ireland Q1 GDP
April 30
- Air quality in the UK statistics
- Quarterly homelessness figures
- Quarterly government debt and deficit figures
- BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index
- EU and Mexico Q1 GDP
- Results from: Amazon, Mcdonald’s, Starbucks, Santander, HSBC, Samsung, Stellantis, VW, Mercedes-Benz, Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Adidas, Coca-Cola, Mondelez, PayPal, Whitbread
May 1
- Scottish GDP final estimate
- UK manufacturing PMI
- Results from: NEXT, Qualcomm, Pfizer, GlaxoSmithKline, Mastercard, eBay, Devon Energy
May 2
- Hong Kong Q1 GDP
- Results from: Apple, Shell, ConocoPhillips, ArcelorMittal, Coinbase, Standard Chartered, The Co-operative Bank, ING, Hugo Boss, Audi, Reach (Trinity Mirror), Liberty Global (Virgin Media), Expedia, AP Moller-Maersk
May 3
- UK services PMI
- BRC economic briefing report
- US employment figures
- EU unemployment
- FAO Food Price Index
- Results from: Société Générale, Credit Agricole, InterContinental Hotels Group, Mondi, Daimler, Audi
Anniversaries and awareness days
April 29
- World Wish Day
- International Dance Day
- 13 years ago: Prince and Princess of Wales married
April 30
- Honesty Day
- International Jazz Day
May 1
- International Workers’ Day (May Day)
- Global Love Day
- Time for a Cuppa Week (to May 8)
- Stroke Awareness Month
- Local & Community History Month
- Mild Month
- National Walking Month
May 3
- 45 years ago: Margaret Thatcher election victory
- Poland Constitution Day
- World Press Freedom Day
- International Tuba Day
May 4
- International Firefighters’ Day
- Star Wars Day
- Free Comic Book Day
- World Naked Gardening Day
May 5
- Orthodox Easter
- Cinco de Mayo
- World Hand Hygiene Day
- International Day of the Midwife
- World Laughter Day
- Hedgehog Awareness Week (to May 11)
The news diary is provided in association with Foresight News.
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