A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News.
Leading the week
Despite receiving an early boost in the shape of higher-than-expected growth figures on July 11, the new government will be under no illusions about the size of the task required to turn around the UK economy. An improved growth forecast from the IMF was tempered by a warning about the impact of lingering inflation, before the publication of a set of reports by the National Audit Office this week painted a grim picture of wasteful spending on major programmes by the previous administration. One of Rachel Reeves’ first actions as Chancellor was to commission analysis from the Treasury on what she called the new government’s spending inheritance, with the intention of making clear to Parliament and the electorate that any tough decisions taken on taxation and public spending would have to be made in the context of previous governments’ fiscal missteps.
That report is due to be published on Monday (July 29), and Reeves is expected to reveal a £20 billion hole in the public coffers which has put some public services at risk of collapse and implies the need for future tax rises. The IFS think tank has suggested the options available to Reeves include changes to tax reliefs, pensions and capital gains, but we’ll have to wait until Budget – which Reeves is expected to confirm will be presented alongside an OBR spending review in October – to find out exactly what measures she’ll tax to plug the fiscal holes. While the start of the week is likely to be dominated by arguments over who’s responsible for the dire state of the economy, there could be better news on Thursday (August 1) when the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee announces the first interest rate decision of Reeves’ tenure as Chancellor, with markets viewing the chance that policymakers will announce the first rate cut in four years as a coin-flip.
The starting gun for the Conservative leadership contest was fired this week with confirmation that the process will last through summer and into conference season, with a replacement for Rishi Sunak not due to be announced until November. First out of the starting blocks in the race was former Home Secretary James Cleverly, who launched his bid to become the leader of the opposition with a promise to unite the Conservative Party and overturn Keir Starmer’s ‘loveless landslide’. Former security minister Tom Tugendhat followed Cleverly by announcing his candidacy with a familiar-sounding pitch for greater control over UK borders, and Robert Jenrick’s announcement is expected to be followed by a flurry of entrants from the right of the party – likely including Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Priti Patel – before nominations close on Monday (July 29). Mel Stride, who joined the fray this morning, is likely to compete with Tugendhat for the moderate vote and it wouldn’t be a Tory leadership contest without at least one left-field candidate so a surprise entry over the weekend is a possibility. But the four candidates to make it through to the first ballot in September are highly likely to come from within that cohort of former ministers, likely setting up a race to the right over the coming summer.
Related
Following disappointments at Wimbledon and the Euros, British hopes now turn to the Olympics in Paris. Another good haul of medals is expected for Team GB, continuing a recent run of success stretching back to the 2012 Olympic Games in London. One of Britain’s most recognised athletes and flagbearer Tom Daley is aiming to bring home a consecutive Olympic gold in the men’s synchronised diving on Monday (July 29). Fellow flagbearer and two-time Olympic champion rower Helen Glover is heavily fancied to add to her tally of golds in the women’s fours on Thursday (August 1), with her team having gone the entire year unbeaten. The fantastically named Delicious Orie is hoping to follow in the footsteps of Team GB Olympic gold medal winner Anthony Joshua in the super heavyweight boxing division. A familiar name if not face to many is Andrea Spendolini-Sirieix, who begins her campaign on Wednesday (July 31) in the synchro event. Spendolini-Sirieix, the daughter of First Dates maitre d’ Fred, is predicted to have a very good chance after winning commonwealth gold. Capping off the week are the sprint finals on Saturday and Sunday (August 3 and 4), with Dina Asher-Smith looking to claim her first Olympic gold after wins in the British 200m and European 100m this year. Team GB hope to crown their first men’s 100m medallist since Linford Christie in 1992 with 22-year-old Louie Hinchliffe. The Sheffield native won the NCAA Championships 100m title after transferring to the University of Houston.
Looking abroad
After the Democratic National Convention confirmed plans to proceed with a virtual roll call to formally select the party’s presidential nominee in the wake of President Biden’s decision to end his reelection campaign, next week is likely put to rest any doubts as to whether Vice President Kamala Harris will take on Donald Trump in November. Speculation of a meaningful challenge had already pretty much evaporated on Monday as a slate of potential rivals announced their endorsements for the former California Senator, and by the time of her rally in Wisconsin the following day she was able to announce that she secured enough delegates to clinch the party’s nomination. The DNC then confirmed the outline of the virtual nomination process and, barring a last-minute challenge, voting on Harris’s nomination is set to begin on Thursday (August 1).
With Harris now the presumptive nominee and the coveted endorsement from former President Barack Obama secured, attention has shifted to who she will choose as a running mate before the DNC’s August 7 deadline for the ticket to be confirmed. Three names appear to be on the shortlist: former astronaut and now Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, former Pennsylvania Attorney General and now Governor Josh Shapiro, and outgoing North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (pronounced Kuə-per). An announcement on her pick could come as early as next week, rounding off an extraordinary moment in an already-extraordinary campaign.
Also look out for:
July 29
- Legislation on public ownership of railways debated in House of Commons
- BMA ballot closes on collective action for GPs in England
- New FCA rules on UK listings take effect
- Jensen Huang and Mark Zuckerberg discuss AI at SIGGRAPH conference
- Joe Biden marks US Civil Rights Act anniversary in Austin
- JD Vance attends fundraiser in Palo Alto
July 30
- New legislation on fiscal rules and the OBR debated in the House of Commons
- Inquest hearing into the deaths of Emma, George and Ellette Pattison
- First preliminary hearing in Omagh bombing inquiry
- Kamala Harris campaigns in Georgia
- Inauguration ceremony for new Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian
- BP and Microsoft results
July 31
- UNESCO World Heritage decisions adopted
- US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
- Sentencing of man guilty of ISIS terror offences
- Donald Trump holds rally in Pennsylvania
- JD Vance holds rally in Arizona
- Meta and Boeing results
August 1
- Scottish ban on XL Bully dogs takes effect
- EU Artificial Intelligence Act enters into force
- Apple, Amazon and Shell results
August 2
- Edinburgh festival begins
- Adele begins summer residency in Munich
August 3
- Pro-Palestine national demonstration in London
August 4
- MotoGP British Grand Prix
Statistics, reports and results:
July 29
- Bank of England Money and Credit
- Results from: Fujitsu, McDonald’s, Pearson, Heineken International
July 30
- EU and euro area Q2 GDP
- BSI research on international AI maturity
- Train Operating Company key statistics
- UK energy trends and prices
- BRC shop price index
- World Gold Council gold demand trends report
- Results from: BP, Microsoft, Airbus, Standard Chartered, PayPal, Pfizer, Merck, Mondelez, Greggs, Diageo, Starbucks, Fresnillo, HeidelbergCement, Procter and Gamble, L’Oreal, Prada
July 31
- Scottish GDP (Q1 final)
- Civil service pay and diversity statistics
- Ofcom report on public service broadcasting compliance
- Property transactions in the UK
- Euro area inflation
- Hong Kong Q2 GDP
- Japan and Brazil interest rate decisions
- Results from: Meta, Boeing, Lufthansa, HSBC, Reach (Trinity Mirror), Taylor Wimpey, Just Eat Takeaway.com, Panasonic, Samsung, Mastercard, GlaxoSmithKline, Adidas, Rio Tinto, Kraft Heinz, QUALCOMM, Marriott
August 1
- Fortune Global 500
- RAJAR listening figures
- Nationwide House Price Index
- Results from: Apple, Shell, Amazon, Barclays, Credit Agricole, Societe Generale, Intel, Coinbase, Rolls-Royce, ABInBev, Bayer, NEXT, Balfour Beatty, Smith & Nephew, Toyota, Daimler, BAE Systems, BMW, APA Corporation, ING, Veolia
August 2
- US unemployment figures
- FAO food price index
- BRC economic briefing report and footfall monitor
- Results from: Chevron, ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, IAG, Volkswagen, Capita, Nintendo
Anniversaries and awareness days:
July 29
July 30
- Friendship Day
- World Day Against Trafficking in Persons
July 31
- World Ranger Day
- National Orgasm Day
August 1
- 80 years ago: Warsaw uprising began
- Earth Overshoot Day
- Yorkshire Day
- Kids Week in the West End
- National Cycle to Work Day
- World Breastfeeding Week (to August 7)
- National Road Victim Month begins
August 2
- International Beer Day
August 3
- Five years ago: El Paso mass shooting (US)
- 10 years ago: ISIS attacked Yazidis of Sinjar
August 4
- Four years ago: Beirut explosion
- Five years ago: Dayton mass shooting (US)
- The Duchess of Sussex turns 43
- Barack Obama turns 63
The news diary is provided in association with Foresight News.
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