News diary 22-28 May: Ofcom news data, Hay Festival, migration figures

A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News.

A group of people thought to be migrants are brought in to Dover, Kent, from a Border Force vessel following a small boat incident in the Channel. Picture date: Monday May 1st, 2023. PA Photo. Picture: Gareth Fuller/PA Wire

A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News.

Leading the week

The Conservative Party’s pledge to stop small boat crossings and cut immigration is set to take a battering with the release of the UK’s annual net migration figures on Thursday (May 25). Analysts predict the net migration number has already passed 700,000,smashing a 2017 manifesto promise to bring that number under 100,000. Despite the promise of ‘taking back control of our borders’ after the Brexit vote, next week’s figure is likely to be double the record numbers recorded before Britain left the EU. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has clashed with the right of the Conservative Party by distancing himself from previous migration targets, suggesting 500,000 would be more realistic, while Home Secretary Suella Braverman suggested the UK should train up its own HGV drivers, butchers, and fruit pickers to reduce dependency on migrants. Thursday’s figures will set up some uncomfortable cabinet splits as Sunak and Braverman attempt to appease immigration critics while other senior ministers insist foreign workers and students are needed to stimulate the economy and tackle labour shortages.

After months of price rises and soaring bills, there should finally be some good news for consumers next week with CPI statistics on Wednesday (May 24) expected to show a sharp drop in inflation led by falling energy prices, even as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warns the UK could be facing a wage-price spiral. The figures come just before Ofgem announces its latest change to the to the default energy tariff cap on Friday (May 26), expected to herald the first reduction in energy bills since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. The cap currently stands at £3,280 for a typical household – though tempered for consumers by the government’s £2,500 Energy Price Guarantee – and analysts are predicting that the energy regulator could announce a reduction to around £2,100 next week. Before the decision is announced, Ofgem chief executive Jonathan Brearley may give an indication of the regulator’s thinking and industry conditions more broadly when he appears before the Public Accounts Committee on Wednesday in a session on the collapse of Bulb Energy.

The parents of 10-month-old Finley Boden will be sentenced on Friday (May 26) after being found guilty of his murder last month.Finley’s lifeless body was found by paramedics after his parents, Stephen Boden and Shannon Marsden, called them in the early hours of Christmas Day 2020. A post-mortem found that Finley had suffered 71 bruises and 54 fractures on his body as well as sepsis and pneumonia, and would have been in ‘severe and protracted pain’ before his death. The case has prompted intense scrutiny of Derbyshire social services, who had taken Finley into care shortly after he was born but handed him back to his parents just 39 days before his death. Council workers had requested a period of six months to transition Finley back to living at home, but a court order returned him to his parents’ care in eight weeks. A child safeguarding practice review into the social services dealing with Finley’s case will be published later this year, looking at social services’ involvement with Finley and his parents before and after he was born.

Looking abroad

Turkey’s presidential election goes to a runoff on Sunday (May 28) after Recep Tayyip Erdogan fell just short of a majority last week with 49.5% of the first-round vote. Despite a fall in popularity over the government’s handling of the economy and the response to February’s devastating earthquakes, Erdogan defied the polls to come out ahead of opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who represents a six-party alliance looking to end Erdogan’s rule after over two decades in power. Kilicdaroglu has spent this week courting the 5.2% of votes won by nationalist candidate and kingmaker Sinan Ogan, swapping his reformist campaign promises of ‘peace and joy’ for a pledge to ‘send all refugees home’ in an effort to appeal to conservative voters. This strategy may cost him votes on the left, particularly with the country’s Kurdish minority, meaning he still faces an uphill battle to topple Erdogan and prevent him from further consolidating power.

The political crisis in Pakistan will remain in the headlines next week as supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan continue to clash with security forces and Khan’s convoluted legal troubles drag on. Khan was released from custody last week after the Supreme Court ruled his May 9 arrest was illegal and remains at his home in Lahore, which is currently surrounded by police reportedly preparing to search it for dozens of ‘terrorists’ the government claimed Khan was harbouring following attacks on military compounds in the wake of his arrest. The Lahore High Court is due to hear a petition on Friday (May 26) to dismiss some 121 cases that have been filed against Khan, including charges of corruption, inciting violence and sedition, while the Islamabad High Court is scheduled to reconsider his bail arrangements the following week.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Supreme Court holds a hearing on Tuesday (May 23) to consider an ongoing dispute over the date for provincial elections in Khan’s home state of Punjab, where the PTI dissolved the assembly in January in an attempt to force early national polls. In a ruling last month, the Supreme Court agreed with the PTI that the vote should take place within 90 days of dissolution and ordered them for May 14, but the Electoral Commission claimed holding elections would be impossible and pushed for the provincial vote to be held alongside the general election in October. The PTI has continued to call for protests in support of fresh elections.

Also look out for

May 22

Strikes bill vote in the House of Commons
James Cleverly speech in Chile on UK policy in Latin America
EU foreign ministers meet on Ukraine
UN Security Council discusses Sudan
Director-General’s address at 76th World Health Assembly
French Open begins
10 years ago: Lee Rigby murder

May 23

Jeremy Hunt and Kristina Georgieva brief on UK economy
Elon Musk addresses WSJ CEO Council in London
Andrew Bailey discusses MPC reports at Treasury Committee
Satya Nadella and OpenAI founder speak at Microsoft Build
PCS Annual Conference
RMT strike re-ballot closes for London Underground staff
EU defence ministers meet on Ukraine
RHS Chelsea Flower Show

May 24

Andrew Bailey and ‘senior UK cabinet minister’ at WSJ CEO Council
Rishi Sunak takes PMQs before House considers retained EU law bill
Rachel Reeves speaks at the Peterson Institute
EU Commission expected to launch Spring Semester package
Jens Stoltenberg speaks at GMF Brussels Forum

May 25

Heathrow security staff strike action
Oath Keepers’ leader sentenced over Jan. 6 attack
Vladimir Putin hosts Armenian and Azeri leaders
Ron DeSantis expected to file 2024 campaign paperwork
European Sleeper railway service launches
IEA releases World Energy Investment report
Hay Festival opens

May 26

Teen sentenced over plot to murder police officers
Jake Drummond sentenced over murder of toddler Jacob Lennon
Oral arguments in JPMorgan lawsuit over Epstein links
Ofcom report on news consumption in the UK
BBC Radio 1’s Big Weekend

May 27

Championship Playoff Final: Coventry v Luton
University & College Union (UCU) Congress
Birmingham Pride
Cannes Palme d’Or Award

May 28

Government takes over operation of TransPennine Express
NATO DEFENDER-Europe 23 exercises begin
League Two playoff final
Formula One Monaco Grand Prix

Statistics reports and results

May 22

OECD report on sovereign borrowing
JAMA reports on COVID-19 vaccines and adolescent mental health
Results from: Ryanair

May 23

Public sector finances
Shell AGM
UK dwelling stock statistics (2022)
OECD quarterly GDP growth

May 24

UK House Price Index
Amazon ASM
Results from: Scottish & Southern Energy (SSE), Marks & Spencer, Severn Trent, Kingfisher plc

May 25

Monthly energy trends and prices
Quarterly NEET statistics
ORR rail performance figures
US Q1 GDP (second estimate)
NHS workforce statistics
Results from: Costco, Best Buy, United Utilities

May 26

Bank of England capital issuance
Travel Trends 2022

Anniversaries and awareness days

May 22

Arts Education Week (to May 28)
British Sandwich Week (to May 28)
World Goth Day

May 23

International Day to End Obstetric Fistula
World Turtle Day

May 24

European Maritime Day
One year ago: Uvalde school shooting
100 years ago: Irish civil war ended

May 25

Africa Day
International Missing Children’s Day
Wear the Lilac Day
Towel Day
Week of Solidarity with the Peoples of the Non-Self-Governing Territories (to May 31)
Three years ago: George Floyd killed
Five years ago: Irish abortion referendum

May 26