A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News.
Leading the week
As the government pushes on with legislation mandating minimum service levels in sectors affected by strikes – the Strikes (Minimum Service Levels) Bill is due in the Commons on Monday (30 January) for committee and remaining stages – the UK faces its largest day of industrial action in decades on Wednesday (1 February) as coordinated strikes hit the education, rail and public sectors in what the TUC are branding a national “day of action”.
Hundreds of thousands of teachers and support staff in England and Wales kick off the National Education Union’s strike campaign as part of their ongoing dispute with the government over pay, following the NEU’s rejection of a 5% pay offer for 2022/23. A further six days of regional and national strikes are planned for February and March.
The higher education sector will also be affected by the day of action as 70,000 UCU members working at 150 universities go on strike as part of their dispute over a pay offer which the union argues amounts to only a 4-5% increase, although that figure has been challenged by the Universities and Colleges Employers Association (UCEA).
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Teaching staff will be joined by over 100,000 civil servants across 124 departments and public bodies, in what the PCS union calls a “significant escalation” in their disputes over pay, conditions and pensions.
Those who are headed to work or picket lines on Wednesday also face travel disruption as train drivers and rail workers belonging to the ASLEF and RMT unions are striking as part of their battle with 14 train operating companies over jobs, conditions and pay. Attempts by the Rail Delivery Group (RDG) to forestall the strikes by offering their “best and final offer” to both unions last week have so far been unsuccessful, with ASLEF rejecting their offer outright and the RMT providing no updates since the offer was submitted. Both unions are holding additional strikes on Friday (3 February).
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A big week for insights into the state of economies around the world sees interest rate decisions by the UK, US and European central banks along with a slew of earnings releases from some of the world’s biggest companies. The IMF kicks things off on Tuesday (31 January) when it publishes the biannual update to its World Economic Outlook, which will be closely watched after Kristalina Georgieva said earlier this month that the Fund expects a third of the global economy to be in recession this year.
Despite the unexpected growth in the UK economy shown in last week’s GDP figures, the Bank of England is likely to announce another rate rise on Thursday (2 February) in an attempt to keep price rises below double digits as it also publishes its latest Monetary Policy Report to update last November’s inflation forecasts.
Rate rises are also expected from the Fed and the ECB (Wednesday and Thursday, respectively), while results from tech heavyweights Meta, Amazon and Apple, and companies including ExxonMobil, Shell, Ford, General Motors, Ryanair and McDonald’s will shed some light on how companies from a variety of important sectors have performed over a tough winter period.
Looking abroad
Following a week where the focus was very much on Ukraine’s military needs, there will be a shift in emphasis when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hosts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel next Friday (3 February) for the first EU-Ukraine summit since the start of the conflict, and the first since Ukraine was granted candidate country status last June.
Ukrainian authorities, keen to show progress towards achieving the so-called seven recommendations laid out by the European Commission, will likely point to the recent departure of a series of top officials amid an anti-corruption drive as evidence of Ukraine’s commitment to its bid for membership, though any decision is not expected until October when the EU’s annual enlargement package is unveiled.
The summit comes just days before the G7, EU, and Australia are due to enact import bans and price caps on Russian oil products, which come into effect on Sunday (5 February) following on from the crude cap agreed in December. It is thought this latest effort may come in the form of two price caps, given additional complications associated with the range of refined products.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken pays a two-day visit to Israel and Palestine on Monday and Tuesday (30-31 January), his first since Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government took office last month. The trip, which includes stops in Jerusalem and Ramallah, comes amid heightened tensions in the region, notably following a deadly Israeli raid in Jenin on Thursday.
Blinken is then expected in Beijing on Sunday (February 5) for high-level talks with his new counterpart Qin Gang, a former Chinese Ambassador to the US. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is on the agenda for talks, it’s difficult to imagine China significantly altering its position on the conflict. Blinken is likely to push for the resumption of US-China discussions on issues such as climate change and military matters, and the pair will likely also aim to put tensions behind them over Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year, though this may prove difficult amid news that Pelosi’s Republican successor Kevin McCarthy is apparently planning a trip to Taipei.
Also look out for
January 30
- Firefighters’ strike ballot closes
- “Support the Strikes” London rally
- Sadiq Khan at committee session on levelling up funding
- Supreme Court hears gang-related crime injunctions case
- Nigerian senator goes on trial in London accused of organ harvesting
- Gareth Bale plays in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am
January 31
- Steve Barclay at Health Committee session on NHS crisis
- Ofgem CEO at BEIS committee session on energy support
- French strikes over pension reforms
- Pope Francis begins three-day visit to DRC
- Premier League transfer window closes
- Carabao Cup semi-final second legs
February 1
- Rishi Sunak faces PMQs amid mass strike action
- Boris Johnson addresses Atlantic Council on Ukraine
- Samsung Galaxy Unpacked event
- FIFA Club World Cup begins
- “Green comet” passes closest to Earth
February 2
- 100 days ago: Rishi Sunak appointed prime minister
- Scottish Parliament Budget debate
- Joe Biden expected at National Prayer Breakfast
- EU Commissioners expected to visit Ukraine
February 3
- Pope Francis and Justin Welby visit South Sudan
- Princess Royal visits Southampton to confer city status
February 4
- Guinness Six Nations begins
February 5
- Grammy Awards
- Elections in Monaco and Cyprus
- Constitutional referendum in Ecuador
- Statistics, reports & results
January 30
- Impact of winter pressures, including cost of living and NHS (ONS)
- 2021 Census stats on religion by age and sex
- Big Brother Watch report on online privacy
- IFRC World Disasters Report
- Germany Q4 GDP
- Results from: Ryanair
January 31
- Quarterly stats on UK Government debt
- IfG Whitehall Monitor report
- Centre for Cities Cities Outlook
- Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index
- Euro area Q4 GDP
- Annual UK fly-tipping stats
- Results from: Spotify, ExxonMobil, Pfizer, UBS, Snap, McDonald’s, Samsung, General Motors, Mondelez
February 1
- UK Manufacturing PMI
- BRC Shop Price Index
- Euro area inflation estimates
- EU unemployment stats
- Hong Kong Q4 GDP
- Results from: Meta (Facebook), Glaxosmithkline
February 2
- HMICFRS PEEL reports
- NHS Urgent and Emergency Care weekly report
- Times 2024 Good University Guide
- RAJAR listening figures
- Results from: Apple, Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Ford, BT, Starbucks
February 3
- Census 2021 stats on characteristics of armed forces veterans
- US Employment stats
- UK Services PMI
- BRC Footfall Monitor report
Anniversaries & awareness days
January 30
- World Neglected Tropical Diseases Day
- 51 years ago: Bloody Sunday
- 90 years ago: Adolf Hitler named German Chancellor
January 31
- Three years ago: Brexit Day
February 1
- LGBT+ History Month
- National Heart Month
- Black History Month (US)
- World Hijab Day
- Iran Ten-Day Dawn
- 20 years ago: Space Shuttle Columbia disaster
February 2
- Time to Talk Day
- Groundhog Day (US)
- World Wetlands Day
- 80 years ago: Battle of Stalingrad ended
February 4
- World Cancer Day
February 5
- 10 years ago: MPs voted to legalise same-sex marriage
The news diary is provided in association with Foresight News.
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