A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News.
Leading the week
The economic story will continue to dominate next week as markets and MPs react to recent developments after Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng was sacked and Prime Minister Liz Truss announced a U-turn on the corporation tax freeze that had been a flagship policy only three weeks ago. The markets only had a couple of hours today to respond to the announcement as well as the end of the Bank of England’s gilt-buying programme before they closed at 4.30pm, so keep an eye on reopening at 8am on Monday (October 17) for more clarity – there was evidence this morning that markets had already priced in a U-turn, so there’s likely to be more turmoil if Truss hasn’t done enough to encourage stabilisation.
A separate U-turn story will get fresh legs on Wednesday (October 19) with September’s inflation figures, which are used as a benchmark for benefits, pensions and business rate uprating. MPs already unhappy with the government over its fiscal policy are unlikely to stay quiet as they pile on pressure to confirm that benefits will rise in line with inflation rather than earnings, while business groups have urged the government to cancel the planned business rate rise next year.
Trade unionists gather in Brighton from Tuesday (October 18) for the TUC Congress, with a sharp focus on workers’ struggles for better pay and conditions as pay offers fail to keep up with inflation. Outgoing General Secretary Frances O’Grady delivers her valedictory speech on the opening day and is also due to issue a statement on the cost of living, while a motion on joint union action on Wednesday (October 19) may see the prospect of a general strike raised again as strike action is ramped up over the autumn months.
Related
A keynote speech by Keir Starmer on Thursday (October 20) is also set to be closely watched not only for the Labour leader’s words on how the party would tackle the UK’s economic woes, but also for any references to the internal disputes over MPs appearing on picket lines. Sam Tarry, who was sacked from the Shadow Cabinet for ignoring the party line, was deselected as a candidate in Ilford South this week, though his case will remain contentious with more MPs potentially facing deselection through the trigger ballot process. With the party officially on an election footing, the Labour leader will be expected to demonstrate in his TUC speech how he intends to unite the unions and his MPs for what’s sure to be a bruising 2024 campaign.
The Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse publishes its long-awaited final report on Thursday (October 20), after more than eight years of work. The investigation was established by then-Home Secretary Theresa May in July 2014 following the Jimmy Savile abuse scandal and has been chaired by Professor Alexis Jay since August 2016.
The report is sure to make for uncomfortable reading for police and local authorities, who have already been accused of ‘extensive failures’ in a preliminary report released earlier this year. The inquiry has also lambasted senior officials for denying the scale of child abuse allegations, concluding that child grooming gangs have been in operation in all regions of England and Wales.
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Looking abroad
EU leaders gather in Brussels on Thursday and Friday (October 20-21), with Ukraine, energy and economic issues top of the agenda. The European Commission is expected to present yet more proposals on a bloc-wide agreement to lower skyrocketing energy prices ahead of the summit, after an informal gathering in Prague last week failed to yield a consensus.
Leaders are looking to find a common approach to the problem, with most discussions focused on a potential cap on gas prices. Germany has raised hackles across the EU by opposing a cap while also borrowing €200 billion to fund a domestic support package, which critics say threatens the single market’s unified approach by taking measures poorer countries can’t follow.
A new proposal backed by Germany and the Netherlands, which doesn’t include a price cap but does feature a new benchmark price for liquefied natural gas and plans for joint gas buying, made its way to energy ministers this week. Members are considerably more united on Ukraine, having just agreed on a military training assistance mission on Wednesday, and are likely to discuss further support following calls from President Volodymyr Zelensky for more air defence systems and rebuilding funds ahead of an October 25 reconstruction conference in Berlin.
Also look out for
October 17
- Scottish Government publishes economic prospectus for independence
- Energy Prices Bill and petition on general election considered in Parliament
- Queen Consort presents Booker Prize trophy
- Ballon d’Or winner announced
- Neymar’s fraud trial opens in Barcelona
October 18
- Strikes by college staff in the UCU
- Mercury Prize winner announced
- Sergey Lavrov addresses new Russian foreign ministry staff
- 100 years ago: BBC founded
October 19
- Liz Truss faces Keir Starmer at PMQs
- Treasury Committee questions Jon Cunliffe on fiscal events
- Ballot of Amazon UK workers closes
- Boundary Commission for Wales publishes revised constituency proposals
- Mike Ashley steps down from Frasers Group board at AGM
- Hong Kong chief executive’s annual policy address
October 20
- Strikes by Royal Mail and BT Openreach staff, including 999 operators
- Jim Harra at committee session on HMRC annual accounts
- Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought winner announced
October 21
- Public sector finances release
- Moody’s releases UK sovereign review
- Plaid Cymru annual conference opens
- Ballot of UCU members closes
- Steve Bannon sentenced over contempt charges
- Taylor Swift releases new album
October 22
- National Rejoin March in London
- Avanti West Coast train managers strike
October 23
- Presidential election in Slovenia
- United States Grand Prix
Statistics, reports and surveys
October 17
- Institute for Government Performance Tracker
- Health Index for England: 2015-2020
- Rightmove House Price Index
- Subnational Foreign Direct Investment statistics
- Results from: Bank of America, BNY Mellon
October 18
- China Q2 GDP
- Results from: Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Roche, Hasbro
October 19
- EU Inflation statistics
- UK House Price Index
- Private housing rental price statistics
- Best Motorway Services survey
- Results from: Tesla, Alcoa, IBM, United Airlines, Nestle, ASOS, Procter & Gamble
October 20
- Health and Social Care Committee report on the future of general practice
- Personal Social Services Adult Social Care Survey
- CPS Performance (quarterly)
- Statistics on the impact of Covid on UK trade
- Statistics on workless households by region
- School and college performance statistics
- Results from: Nokia, Ericsson, L’Oreal, AT&T
October 21
- UK Retail Sales
- HMICFRS report on national child protection inspection
- Results from: Renault, American Express, Verizon, Metro AG, InterContinental Hotels
Anniversaries and awareness days
October 17
- Recycle Week (to October 23)
- National Pasta Day
- Five years ago: Fall of Raqqa announced
October 18
- Anti-Slavery Day
- EU Anti-Trafficking Day
- World Menopause Day
October 20
- International Credit Union Day
- World Osteoporosis Day
October 21
- Trafalgar Day
- Wear It Pink Day
October 22
- World Energy Day
- International Stammering Awareness Day
October 23
- World Mission Day
- Republic Day (Hungary)
The news diary is provided in association with Foresight News.
Picture: PA Wire/BBC
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