A look ahead at the key events leading the news agenda next week, from the team at Foresight News.
Leading the week
Nicola Sturgeon faces one of the most significant weeks of her political life, as the UK Supreme Court considers the ramifications of her second Scottish independence referendum planned for next year.
While the legal teams finalise their arguments, the First Minister will be in Aberdeen on Monday (10 October) to deliver her keynote address to the SNP’s autumn conference. Having been branded a member of the “anti-growth coalition“ by Prime Minister Liz Truss, Sturgeon is sure to deliver a fiery response when she takes to the stage shortly after 3pm. The SNP leader has already lambasted Truss’s government over its top rate of tax U-turn, suggesting its handling of the cost-of-living crisis increasingly makes independence a more urgent prospect.
Officials in both London and Edinburgh will then be fixated on proceedings in the Supreme Court on Tuesday and Wednesday (11-12 October) as it finally hears the hugely anticipated referendum case.
The hearing has been prompted by Scotland’s most senior legal officer, the Lord Advocate, who has asked the court to rule on whether Holyrood has the necessary powers to call a referendum without Westminster’s approval.
While a ruling is unlikely for several weeks, Truss has already strongly re-affirmed her opposition to an independence ballot regardless of the court’s decision. Pro- and anti-independence camps are certain to dig in as the court considers its judgment, meaning cost-of-living and constitutional crises will be leading our political discourse for some time to come.
The tough days are set to continue for Kwasi Kwarteng when Parliament returns after conference recess, with a first round of departmental questions coming in the same week as a series of potentially pivotal economic markers.
The chancellor will lead Treasury questions in the House of Commons on Tuesday (11 October), just minutes after the IMF publishes its annual World Economic Outlook and ahead of the release of monthly GDP figures on Wednesday (12 October).
The IMF’s latest projections for the global economy are unlikely to be a significant improvement on April’s gloomy forecast, so Kwarteng may need to deliver a more dynamic performance than he showed on stage in Birmingham last week, while a buoyant opposition will be keen to exploit divisions among Conservative MPs over the government’s performance.
After some apparent disagreement at the highest level of Cabinet over the publication of the medium-term fiscal plan, Kwarteng may also use the session to clarify the timetable on plans to demonstrate the fiscal discipline touted by Liz Truss in her own conference speech while also delivering the growth promised repeatedly since the pair took up residence in Downing Street last month.
The prime minister’s broadly well-received speech has restored some faith in her government’s ambitions for now, though with remarks on the economy due from both Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey (Tuesday) and chief economist Huw Pill (Wednesday) there’s potential for another run on trust in the Truss government before the central bank’s first turbulence-calming gilt operation is due to conclude on Friday (14 October).
Looking abroad
After Russian President Vladimir Putin formally annexed four Ukrainian regions earlier this week, NATO defence ministers, including Ben Wallace, meet in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday (12-13 October) for meetings once again dominated by the conflict.
The gathering includes a meeting of the US-led Ukraine Defence Contact Group, where further arms supplies to Ukraine will likely be discussed as Kyiv continues to make impressive territorial gains despite Russia’s partial military mobilisation.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, will deliver a special address to the Council of Europe’s Parliamentary Assembly on Thursday (13 October) as Putin travels to Kazakhstan for a series of regional summits on Thursday and Friday (13-14 October).
On Sunday (16 October), one of the most significant gatherings in recent history will begin with the opening of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.
The meticulously orchestrated meeting takes place every five years, but this year is unusual as President Xi Jinping is all-but-certain to secure an unprecedented third term as party leader. There will also be particular interest among China-watchers in the make-up of the new Politburo Standing Committee, the country’s most influential body, for indications as to the extent of Xi’s authority over the party.
Also look out for
October 10
- High Court hears further challenge to Rwanda asylum plan
- Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences (Nobel) winner announced
- BT Openreach and UCU college staff strike
- IMF and World Bank Group annual meetings
- UN General Assembly meets on Ukraine following ‘referendums’
October 11
- GCQH Director delivers security lecture on China
- House of Lords consider Northern Ireland Protocol Bill
- Post Office Horizon system inquiry begins phase 2 hearings
- Liverpool dock workers strike
- Mark Zuckerberg addresses Meta Connect
October 12
- First PMQs since fiscal statement
- G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet
- Sinn Fein People’s Assembly
October 13
- Ofgem chief executive speaks at Energy UK Annual Conference
- Royal Mail staff strike
- Court hearing for two men charged with murder of Lyra Mckee
- US Jan 6. Committee hearing
- Snap elections in Vanuatu
October 14
- NEU teachers’ consultative strike ballot closes
October 15
- Andrew Bailey addresses G30 banking seminar
- Alba Party Autumn Conference
- Rugby League World Cup begins
October 16
- Avanti West Coast contract expires
- World Health Summit
- ICC T20 World Cup begins
Statistics, reports and surveys
October 10
- OECD International Migration Outlook
- Flexible working families survey
- Results from: Tata Consultancy Services
October 11
- UK unemployment figures
- IMF Global Financial Stability Report
- EU energy ministers meet
- IFS Green Budget
- BRC Retail Sales Monitor
October 12
- UK trade statistics
- IMF Fiscal Monitor
- OPEC Oil Markets report
- Results from: PepsiCo
October 13
- Monthly A&E quality indicators for England
- NHS key services combined performance data
- Bank of England credit conditions survey
- WWF Living Planet report
- Results from: Delta Airlines, Blackrock, Walgreen Boots
October 14
- China Consumer Price Index
- Results from: US Bancorp, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup
Anniversaries and awareness days
October 10
- World Mental Health Day
- National Work-Life Week (to October 14)
- Columbus Day (US)
- Canadian Thanksgiving
- Taiwan National (Double Ten) Day
October 11
- Ada Lovelace Day
- International Day of the Girl Child
- National Coming Out Day
October 12
- World Arthritis Day
- Fiesta de la Hispanidad (Spanish national day)
October 13
- World Sight Day
- International Day for Disaster Reduction
- English Language Day
- Book publishers’ “Super Thursday”
October 14
- National Dessert Day
October 15
- One year ago: Sir David Amess killed
- Global Handwashing Day
October 16
- Five years ago: Daphne Caruana Galizia killed
- World Food Day
- National Dictionary Day
The news diary is provided in association with Foresight News.
Picture: UK Supreme Court
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