Leading the week
The ongoing political stalemate in Northern Ireland is the focus of next week’s attentions, with all sides having until Thursday (19 January) to reach an increasingly unlikely agreement to restore its power-sharing Executive.
The country has been without a fully functioning government since the DUP pulled its support in protest at the Northern Ireland Protocol arrangements in February 2022. Though negotiations have been ongoing ever since, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly mounted a fresh push this week to strike an agreement at the eleventh hour by hosting cross-party talks in Belfast. The result was nothing short of chaotic.
Despite insistences to the contrary from Cleverly, Sinn Fein refused to participate after alleging their leader Mary Lou McDonald had been deliberately excluded from the talks. The SDLP promptly followed suit before Sinn Fein’s deputy leader Michelle O’Neill launched a blistering attack on the government for acting in “bad faith” and displaying “petulance”.
It’s fair to say then that Wednesday’s events have hardly put officials on the strongest footing as they look to bridge the divide facing Northern Ireland’s political parties in just a few days. Efforts will begin on Monday (16 January) as Cleverly and Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris meet with European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic for a stock-taking on the progress surrounding Northern Ireland Protocol negotiations. Their discussions will then be relayed to officials gathering for the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference in Dublin on Thursday (19 January), which could give Heaton-Harris justification for an additional extension reportedly under consideration.
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If Thursday does indeed come and go without an agreement, Northern Ireland then faces the prospect of going back to the polls for fresh elections before 13 April.
As a succession of trade union leaders filter in and out of government department offices to negotiate with ministers, the NHS – suffering already under staff shortages, shocking A&E and ambulance waiting times, and a lack of resources – faces a second RCN nurses’ strike this week on Wednesday and Thursday (18-19 January) as part of an ongoing dispute over pay.
Any hopes of the strike being called off at the last minute were quashed last week after RCN General Secretary Pat Cullen walked out of a meeting with Health Secretary Steve Barclay claiming the government refused to discuss pay with union representatives. Strains caused by the strike are likely to be exacerbated in Wales by an ambulance strike on Thursday (19 January), while health officials will undoubtedly be nervously awaiting the results of a junior doctors’ ballot on strike action for members of the HCSA union, which closes on Friday (20 January).
Looking abroad
The World Economic Forum, better known as Davos, gets underway on Tuesday (17 January) in Switzerland. Although a couple of “Special Address” slots remain to be filled (and it’s easy to imagine Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy taking one of them), there are plenty of heavyweight international figures already confirmed to speak this year.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is up on Tuesday, as is Belarusian opposition figure Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who may attract some extra attention as her treason trial gets underway in Minsk on the same day. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg all speak on Wednesday (18 January), while the UK press will be keeping a close eye on Thursday’s agenda, which sees interventions from former Prime Minister Tony Blair, Labour leader Keir Starmer, Business Secretary Grant Shapps and Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar.
Following a flurry of announcements regarding new assistance to Ukraine and a controversy over the re-export of German-made weapons, members of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group will gather at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday (20 January) for their latest round of discussions on aiding Kyiv following Russia’s invasion last February.
The meeting is once again chaired by US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley, and discussions are likely to include preparations for the spring, when both sides in the conflict are said to be planning major offensives. NATO chiefs, meanwhile, are set to meet in Brussels on Wednesday and Thursday (18 and 19 January).
In Russia, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov holds his annual press conference on Wednesday, a day before Russians celebrate Orthodox Epiphany, which has historically seen President Vladimir Putin participate in the tradition of swimming in freezing waters; failure to do so this year may fuel further speculation regarding his health.
Also look out for
January 16
- Second reading of anti-strike legislation in the House of Commons
- Unions hold “protect the right to strike” demo
- Andrew Bailey questioned by MPs on BoE Financial Stability Report
- Rwanda asylum case heard in High Court
- Australian Open begins
January 17
- Online Safety Bill considered in House of Commons
- Royal Mail and Post Office CEOs questioned by MPs
- UK unemployment figures
- Inquest opens into deaths of Plymouth shooting victims
- Penny Mordaunt at IfG Government 2023 conference
- Elon Musk securities fraud trial begins
- Sergey Lavrov meets with Iranian Foreign Minister
- North Korea people’s assembly session opens
January 18
- UK inflation figures
- Keep NHS Public march
- PMQs and EU law bill in House of Commons
- Huw Merriman at committee session on rail services
- Launch of Edelman Trust Barometer
January 19
- Deadline for review of Scottish gender reform legislation
- Joint Committee report on Draft Mental Health Bill
- Messi and Ronaldo play in PSG v Saudi ‘all-star’ fixture
- BAFTA film awards shortlist announced
January 20
- Hearing in FTX bankruptcy proceedings
- Dolly Parton, Cyndi Lauper, Gloria Estefan, Belinda Carlisle & Debbie Harry single released
January 21
- Rachel Reeves and Ed Miliband address Fabian Society New Year conference
- Constitutional referendum in Slovakia
January 22
- Chinese New Year: Year of the Rabbit
Statistics, reports and surveys
January 16
- ILO World Employment and Social Outlook report
- Rightmove House Price Index
- Register of Political Donations
January 17
- Universal credit statistics
- Results from: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ocado
January 18
- EU inflation
- Private housing rental prices
- Results from: Alcoa, United Airlines, WHSmith
January 19
- ONS figures on excess winter mortality in 2021/22
- NHS England weekly urgent and emergency care report
- 2021 Census stats on health, disability and unpaid care
- Ofcom adults’ media literacy tracker
- Bank of England credit conditions survey
- ONS figures on people moving in and out of work (2016-2022)
- Results from: Netflix, Procter and Gamble, Sage Group
January 20
- UK retail sales
- GfK consumer confidence barometer
- Results: Ericsson, Schlumberger
Anniversaries and awareness days
January 16
- Brew Monday
January 18
- Winnie the Pooh Day
January 20
- Six years ago: Donald Trump sworn in as President
- 15 years ago: Breaking Bad first aired
January 21
- National Hugging Day
January 22
- 50 years ago: US Supreme Court Roe v Wade ruling
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