Advertising spend with national newspapers will continue to fall year-on-year in 2020 despite quarterly growth, according to new estimates.
National newsbrands took £1bn of advertising revenue in 2018, the most recent full-year figures, down 2.7 per cent on the year before. Online ad spend accounted for £318m of the total expenditure.
The latest report from the Advertising Association and ad intelligence agency WARC reveals ad spend on nationals is estimated to fall a further 2.5 per cent in 2019 and forecasts a drop of 3.3 per cent for 2020.
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This was despite a rise in advertising revenue at national newsbrands over two consecutive quarters in 2019 following a challenging start to the year when expenditure fell by 9.1 per cent in the first quarter.
Online ad revenues are forecast to grow by 5.1 per cent for 2019 and a further 5.2 per cent in 2020.
“Advertisers are increasingly recognising the importance of context and quality journalism once more, said Tracy de Groose, executive chairman of newspaper marketing body Newsworks.
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“I believe we now have a real opportunity to close this incongruous gap that exists between audience and advertising growth.
“Despite a tough start to 2019 I am delighted we delivered two consecutive periods of growth, and on certain numbers we outperformed the forecasts.
“However, these numbers still don’t reflect the record readership numbers we are seeing – 26m daily – as more and more people demand reliable and trusted sources of news, analysis and insight.”
Ad spend on regional newspapers reached £804m in 2018, down 9.3 per cent on the year before, of which £228m was online. It is expected to fall by 10.3 per cent for 2019 and is forecast to fall by a further 5.4 per cent in 2020.
Online ad spend on regionals is set to grow by 4.9 per cent, however.
Magazine brands topped £718m in 2018, down 7.5 per cent on the year before, of which £270m was online. It is estimated to drop by 7.6 per cent in 2019 and predicted to fall by a further 3.9 per cent this year.
Again, online ad spend for magazines is set to rise, by 3.7 per cent.
| Adspend 2018 (£m) | 2018 v 2017 (% change) | Estimate 2019 year-on-year % change | Forecast 2020 year-on-year % change | |
| Search | 6,656 | 14.3 | 12.1 | 10.1 |
| Online display (inc newsbrand digital & broadcaster VoD) | 5,332 | 21.4 | 12.6 | 10.8 |
| TV | 5,111 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 1.7 |
| of which VoD | 391 | 29.4 | 19.1 | 14.5 |
| Direct mail | 1,552 | -8.7 | -9.2 | -5.2 |
| Online classified | 1,451 | -1.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Out of home | 1,209 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 4.9 |
| of which digital | 603 | 14.7 | 14 | 10.2 |
| National newsbrands | 1,015 | -2.7 | -2.5 | -3.3 |
| of which online | 318 | 13 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| Regional newsbrands | 804 | -9.3 | -10.3 | -5.4 |
| of which online | 228 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| Magazine brands | 718 | -7.5 | -7.6 | -3.9 |
| of which online | 270 | -0.3 | -1.4 | 3.7 |
| Radio | 714 | 5.1 | 0.6 | 3.1 |
| of which online | 45 | 30.6 | 14.7 | 22.5 |
| Cinema | 254 | -2.1 | 24.6 | -6.3 |
| TOTAL UK AD SPEND | 23,563 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
Picture: Reuters/Andrew Winning
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